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Analysing Covid-19 Epidemic Trajectories: are Countries Flattening the Curve?

Arnout JW Everts

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID19) reached the pandemic phase on March 11, 2020. As of April 29, 2020, it had spread to more than 200 countries worldwide, leading to 2,954,222 registered infections and 202,597 deaths. Particularly alarming characteristics of COVID-19 are its very high spreading rate with Reproduction Number higher than influenza [1], and severe illness trajectory observed in some patients requiring lengthy hospitalization and high-intensity care [2]. Hence, governments around the world considered, and to some extent, implemented a range in measures aimed at limiting people movements and interactions to attempt slowing down transmission of the COVID19 and to dampen the severity of the epidemic trajectory.